Building a case for a rolling recession
Whether it’s a hard landing or a soft landing of the economy, a recession may be the most widely anticipated nonevent since Y2K. While both hard- and soft-landing camps are confident in their claims, perhaps the actual economic outcome lies somewhere in the middle...a "rolling recession". Rather than a simultaneous and comprehensive downturn, or the outright avoidance of a contraction, a rolling recession is a more staggered response to financial conditions affecting different areas of the economy at different times.
This week's highlight article from Goldman Sachs builds the case for a "rolling recession" and how this phenomenon may more accurately describe current economic conditions in the US.
Wage growth cooled as employers hired less. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% from a month earlier and 4.1% from a year earlier, down from 4.3% in September. In the last three months, they rose just 3.2% annualized. Cooler hiring and rising unemployment alongside a downward trend for wages could bring the Fed’s historic interest-rate increases to an end.
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